Palavras-chave
Ofensa
Crime
Operações Militares
Atividade Criminal
Taxa de Crime
Modelo FMEA
Previsão de Risco
Como Citar
Resumo
As operações militares causam diversas violações no sistema de segurança do Estado, incluindo um aumento da atividade criminosa. Isto exige respostas melhoradas e inovadoras a infracções e crimes, que incluem a simulação computacional forense de infracções. O objetivo deste trabalho é determinar uma abordagem para o desenvolvimento de um modelo computacional forense de crimes no contexto de operações militares e avaliar as suas potenciais vantagens. A pesquisa envolveu o método de observação estatística, o método de rating, a análise de riscos e potenciais falhas utilizando o modelo FMEA. A investigação realizada revelou um aumento da taxa de criminalidade na Ucrânia após a invasão em grande escala. O aumento de quase nove vezes no número de crimes particularmente graves exige atenção especial. Isto deu motivos para propor as direções de aplicação do método de simulação computacional forense de crimes - previsão e análise de crimes, simulação geoinformacional, etc. Um algoritmo para o desenvolvimento de um modelo computacional forense para previsão de atos terroristas no contexto de um conflito militar é proposto. Nota-se que a eficácia deste modelo depende da correta identificação e avaliação de possíveis riscos para o sistema de segurança, o que se propõe a ser realizado através do modelo FMEA. A aplicação do modelo FMEA para previsão de atos terroristas é a novidade do estudo.
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